Monday, January 18, 2010

‘Elite US troops ready to combat Pak nukes hijack’

This post is just to aware people to analyse what's being published in western media.
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A report of Christina Lamb in the Sunday Times
LONDON: The US Army is training a crack unit to seal off and snatch back Pakistani nuclear weapons in the event that militants, possibly from inside the country’s security apparatus, get their hands on a nuclear device or materials that could make one.

However, a Foreign Office spokesman rejected the report saying Pakistan’s strategic assets are as safe as that of any other nuclear weapon state and these assets are fully safeguarded and secure under the protection of a well-established command and control system.

According to a report appearing in the Sunday Times, the specialised unit would be charged with recovering the nuclear materials and securing them. “What you have in Pakistan is nuclear weapons mixed with the highest density of extremists in the world, so we have a right to be concerned,” said Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a former CIA officer, who used to run the US Energy Department’s intelligence unit.

“There have been attacks on army bases which stored nuclear weapons and there have been breaches and infiltrations by terrorists into military facilities.” In a counterterrorism journal, published by America’s West Point military academy, he documented three incidents. The first was an attack in November 2007 at Sargodha in Punjab, where nuclear capable F-16 jet aircraft are thought to be stationed. The following month a suicide bomber struck at Pakistan’s nuclear airbase at Kamra in Attock district. In August 2008, a group of suicide bombers blew up the gates to a weapons complex at the Wah Cantonment in Punjab, believed to be one of Pakistan’s nuclear warhead assembly plants. The attack left 63 people dead.

A further attack followed at Kamra last October. Pakistan denies that the base still has a nuclear role, but Gregory believes it does. A six-man suicide team was arrested in Sargodha last August.

Fears that militants could penetrate a nuclear facility intensified after a brazen attack on army headquarters in Rawalpindi in October when 10 gunmen wearing army uniforms got inside and laid siege for 22 hours. Last month there was an attack on the naval command centre in Islamabad.

Al-Qaeda leadership has made no secret of its desire to get its hands on weapons for a “nuclear 9/11”. “I have no doubt they are hell-bent on acquiring this,” said Mowatt-Larssen. “These guys are thinking of nuclear at the highest level and are approaching it in increasingly professional ways.”

Nuclear experts and US officials say the biggest fear is of an inside job amid growing anti-American feeling in Pakistan. Last year 3,021 Pakistanis were killed in terrorist attacks, more than in Afghanistan, yet polls suggest Pakistanis consider the United States to be a greater threat than the Taliban.

“You have 8,000-12,000 [people] in Pakistan with some type of role in nuclear missiles — whether as part of an assembly team or security,” said Gregory. “It’s a very large number and there is a real possibility that among those people are sympathisers of terrorist or Jihadist groups who may facilitate some kind of attack.”

Pakistan is thought to possess about 80 nuclear warheads. Although, the weapons are well guarded, the fear is that materials or processes to enrich uranium could fall into the wrong hands.

“All it needs is someone in Pakistan within the nuclear establishment and in a position of key access to become radicalised,” said Mowatt-Larssen. “This is not just theoretical. It did happen — Pakistan has had inside problems before.”

Bashir Mahmood, the former head of Pakistan’s plutonium reactor, formed the Islamic charity Ummah Tameer-e-Nau in March 2000 after resigning from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission. He was arrested in Islamabad on October 23, 2001, with his associate Abdul Majeed for alleged links to Osama bin Laden.

Pakistan’s military leadership, which controls the nuclear programme, has always bristled at the suggestion that its nuclear facilities are at risk. The generals insist that storing components in different sites keeps them secure.

US officials refused to speak on the record about American safety plans, well aware of how this would be seen in Islamabad. However, one official admitted that the United States does not know where all of Pakistan’s storage sites are located. “Don’t assume the US knows everything,” he said.

Concerns about hostility towards America within elements of the Pakistani armed forces first surfaced in 2007. At a meeting of military commanders staged at Kurram, on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, a Pakistani major drew his pistol and shot an American. The incident was hushed up as a gunfight.

Sunday, January 17, 2010

The top brass and the untenable political logjam

January 17, 2010

JCSC press release says much between the lines; meetings involving civilians, khakis and Americans discuss unsustainable uncertainty; will Zardari be allowed to appoint his own ISI chief in March and to announce new Army chief in June?

By Shaheen Sehbai

WASHINGTON: A series of back-to-back meetings of the military high command, major players of the civil and khaki establishment topped up with an exclusive session of the Army high-ups with the Americans, have all highlighted the almost unsustainable uncertainty created by the current political milieu in Pakistan.

Some of the military meetings have even publicly admitted that the domestic situation was discussed in detail and, almost like the GHQ response to the Kerry-Lugar Bill, the press release issued after the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee meeting carried comments which were of immense importance and possible implications.

The JCSC release said: “The committee deliberated in detail complex internal security situation... It expressed satisfaction on the state of preparedness of the armed forces of Pakistan and had a deliberate discussion on various measures for effectively dealing with the assessed security challenges confronting the country.” (Italics added)

Whatever the official press releases say, no one can deny that the main underlying subject of concern in all these meetings was the political situation and the state of confrontation between institutions which a beleaguered president has created by refusing to present himself before the law, by politicising his personal corruption and by trying to divide the country on ethnic and regional lines, all to save himself from accountability. This is now being treated as a major security challenge to the country.

The situation is getting unbearable because the petty politics of personal preservation, using the highest and the lowest offices of the state, has thrown the country’s security and military establishment into confusion which can create havoc given the massive internal threats and external challenges.

The greatest concern is that our fighters on the diplomatic and military battle fronts are not getting the internal political cohesion and strength which is desperately needed to face domestic terrorists and external pressures to do more, although this terminology may not be in use but whatever language is used carries the same message.

The long sessions of military generals, some with their own boys and some with civilians present, have probably chalked out their strategy if this political fog does not clear soon. When the JCSC officially states that a “deliberate discussion on various measures” was held, it says between the lines that various scenarios have been discussed and what to do has been decided.

Probably the broad outlines of the decisions have also been conveyed to the American decision makers as they too are more than worried about the non-serious attitude of top elected leaders when the country needed mature thinking, concerted efforts and coordination, instead of irresponsible jockeying for power and playing to the galleries.

The prolonging situation is causing hysteria in some circles because critical deadlines are approaching for major decisions yet the message being sent by the ruling PPP is that they will keep playing games, to gain as much time as they can, until either they are forced out of power or they consolidate their grip on key institutions.

The complex situation, not mentioned in the military press releases but obviously referred to between the lines, can be summarised as:

- What will happen if the Supreme Court’s judgments are not implemented by the Executive branch.

- What will happen if the government continues to defy the Supreme Court on appointment of new judges and other matters.

- What will the GHQ do if the Supreme Court asks for Army help under Article 190 of the Constitution.

- Will the mobilisation of Sindhi forces by the PPP, or the so-called Sindh card, be a serious threat to the federation, if Zardari forces it upon the nation.

- What will the PML-N and other political forces do as the PPP is not serious in removing the 17th Amendment and is playing for time.

- Should this non-serious and corruption-tainted leadership of the PPP be allowed to insult the intelligence of the nation by appointing and promoting leaders accused of taking bribes.

- Should this leadership be permitted to appoint its own ISI chief in March when the current incumbent is to retire, may be a personal corrupt crony of the president.

- Should the situation be allowed to drag on, until say June, when the politically shrewd Zardari makes a premature announcement to replace the current Army chief, retiring in November, in an effort to turn him into a lame-duck and create a rift within the Army.

- What happens in Karachi if the PPP leadership tries to play games with the MQM and takes over the main power base of the party by appointing its own administrators and then delaying the local bodies elections or rigging them.

- Who looks after the security situation when top leadership has no credibility and is involved in court cases, seeking bails and providing sureties.

- Who would mobilise the nation to take a tough and independent stand against the US policy in Afghanistan, now that a surge is imminent and drone attacks have, and will, increase in ferocity and numbers.

- Is Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani ready to go down with his president, should the courts and justice system catches up with him. What then?

- Is Mian Nawaz Sharif or the PML-N ready to let the country go down just to protect some corrupt politicians who have been elected by sheer stroke of luck, chance, and trickery, in the name of saving the democratic set up.

- Is there a serious threat to democracy if a political leader is caught stealing and courts convict him or try to get the looted money back.

These, and many more related issues, have been discussed at all the forums and broad policy decisions appear to have been taken. How will these decisions be seen and felt by the nation will depend on the pace of the various processes which are continuing and will go on.

The most awaited detailed judgment in the NRO case will probably trigger the series of events that will unfold. The PPP has so far refused to implement the judgment and it is set to continue the defiance. If the Supreme Court fails to get its judgments implemented, then the entire people’s movement for an independent judiciary will come to a naught. That no one will want, so the next logical step is for the SC to ask for help, which will have to come, as required under the Constitution.

Even then if the PPP defiance continues, the coalition partners in parliament will have to decide whether they want a Zardari dictatorship or rule of law and the establishment will again get the chance to play the decisive role in influencing their judgments.

If after all the turmoil and turbulence it appears that the present parliament is unable to give a stable majority government, the only option will be to go back to the people for mid-term polls.

The tragedy is that in all these crucial matters, the attitude of the elected PPP leadership is despicable and pathetic. The PPP claims to be a federal party but is behaving like a petty opposition group, unable to make up its mind whether it should play a sobering and mature national political role or confine itself to a small nationalist group in Sindh.

The bottom-line is that everyone who is concerned knows what is going on and no one will allow the present policy of Zardari to succeed. He thinks he will take everybody down, if he goes down himself, but no body is going with him as he as to clear himself of corruption charges before claiming to be a moral or national leader of a province or the country. His election as president has not washed away the charges against him. In fact he has, by his actions, reinforced his image of a non-serious, happy-go-lucky, not too worried about moral issues guy, who has nothing to lose. This image of the president of Pakistan is untenable.

Pakistan's military makes a stand By Syed Sy Saleem Shehzad

Pakistan's military makes a stand
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ISLAMABAD - After several months of backroom wheeling and dealing between the United States and the top brass in the Pakistani garrison city of Rawalpindi, Washington has expressed its full trust in Pakistan's military leadership and its apparatus, including the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which in turn is preparing to fight the next phase in the South Asia war theater.

This will focus on the hunt for high-profile al-Qaeda targets in the Shawal and Datta Khel areas of Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area, where it is believed Osama bin Laden's deputy, Dr Ayman Al-Zawahiri, and the shura (council) of al-Qaeda are hiding. Over the past few weeks, the US has stepped up drone attacks in the region.

United States Senator Joe Lieberman, who recently visited Pakistan, confirmed on Sunday that the Pakistani army "is on the move" and that there is the "possibility the US will see activity in that volatile northern region [North Waziristan]". Lieberman met with Pakistan's military chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani.

In the latest drone attack early on Thursday morning, two missile strikes were reported to have killed 10 suspected militants in a compound in the Pasalkot area of North Waziristan. Several days ago, the US said it had killed 12 people at a suspected Taliban training center about 30 kilometers west of Miranshah, the main town in North Waziristan.

In the latter stages of last year, the Pakistan military waged a months-long offensive in South Waziristan against the Pakistani Taliban, with some success. The operation in North Waziristan, however, will concentrate solely on al-Qaeda and its affiliates.

This understanding was reached after some tricky negotiations. The US initially wanted a broader Pakistani campaign, even suggesting that if Pakistan did not cooperate, it would send in its own special forces for ground assaults and mount daily drone strikes inside North Waziristan.

Pakistan argued that its military was stretched as its forces were already committed in Swat, South Waziristan and the agencies of Mohmand, Bajaur and Khyber.

A senior Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online on the condition of anonymity that Pakistan was also reluctant to undertake a full operation in North Waziristan because that region was not a main sanctuary for the Taliban, as is South Waziristan. The official said that the Americans were therefore told that Pakistan's participation would be limited to the elimination of al-Qaeda and its affiliate groups. At the same time, he hinted at a possible role for Pakistan in facilitating negotiations with the Afghan Taliban.

The recent deadly suicide attack on a US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) base in Khost province in Afghanistan was plotted by al-Qaeda in North Waziristan. (See US spies walked into al-Qaeda's trap Asia Times Online, January 5, 2009.)

The dispute over the level of Pakistan's involvement caused bad blood on both sides. At one point, the Pakistani military establishment clamped down on the many American defense contractors in the country, and even American diplomats were forced to tangle with red tape, so much so that the US ambassador, Anne W Patterson, made a public protest.

Nonetheless, this proved to be just another episode in the love-hate relationship between the two allies who both desperately need one another. As a result, communication began at new levels. Sources privy to the military establishment say that a major turnaround was the visit late last year of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Islamabad.

Washington conceded that the government of President Asif Ali Zardari had a "credibility deficit" and the only option was to rely on the Pakistan army. The visit of Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, in the second week of December was also a milestone. He returned to Washington and lobbied in favor of the US dealing directly with Kiani.

There followed a string of visits by American military officials and senators, including that of Lieberman, who confirmed that the Pakistan army was the only hope in tackling the troubles in South Asia.

One of the consequences of this is that Washington has informed Islamabad that the term of the director general of the ISI, Lieutenant General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, should be extended. He is due to retire in March. A few months later, Kiani is due to step down, and if Pasha is not reappointed, Pasha will be the next chief of army staff by virtue of his seniority.

Understandably, Zardari's government initially reacted badly to being snubbed - and dictated to - by the US. A senior member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP), barrister Kamal Azfar, said in a statement that both the CIA and the Pakistani military headquarters aimed to derail democracy in the country. Then throughout the month of December, Zardari and cabinet members spoke out against the military establishment.

The military hit back, and under its pressure Zardari surprised everybody by giving up the chairmanship of the National Command Authority, which controls the country's nuclear weapons. It is now firmly under the military's wing.

On December 29, on the second anniversary of the assassination of his wife, Benazir Bhutto, Zardari delivered an inflammatory speech against the military, taking aback even members of his PPP.

Frantic meetings followed between Zardari and go-betweens for the military, resulting eventually in an understanding that the president would take briefs from the army chief on all issues and then speak accordingly.

The military has effectively put Zardari in his place, just as it has got its way with the US over North Waziristan: Washington and the Pakistani civilian government have no option but to follow the game accordingly.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com